Research Projects and Publications in CUHK- Economics

Research Projects


  • An Analysis of the Admission of Talents Scheme in Hong Kong: Theory and CGE Evaluation

  • CHAO Chi Chur, YAO Shunli*, YU Siu Hung Eden*
    1 September 2002
    Research Grants Council (Earmarked Grants)

    Every country in the world these days has adopted some type of immigration policy. Such an adoption of restrictive immigration policy, whether quantitative or qualitative in nature, presumably is a response to the concern that immigration may be detrimental to the host country. However, somewhat surprisingly, a majority of studies in the literature has found that immigration is beneficial to the host country, a fact that does not explain the extensive implementation of immigration policy. As a matter of fact, most countries prefer skilled and professional workers and as a result severely limit the entry of non-skilled workers except for family reunion. The Admission of Talents Scheme (ATS) introduced in Hong Kong in April 2001 provides a clear example of an immigration policy in favor of skilled professional workers for a largely service-based economy. This may be due to the fact that skilled workers can generate scale economies in production that contribute to the welfare of the native residents in the host economy. This research will first develop theoretical frameworks, incorporating imperfect competition and scale economies, to examine the welfare effect of admission of talents to the host economy. We will then numerically simulate the models and quantitatively assess the implications of relaxation of immigration of skilled versus unskilled labor for the Hong Kong economy. The findings can shed some light on understanding why the present adoption of the immigration policy tends to be favor of skilled workers over unskilled workers. (CU02201)



  • Capital Market Imperfection and Informational Friction in Property Markets

  • LEUNG Ka Yui Charles, CHOW Ying Foon (Dept of Finance)
    11 November 2002
    CUHK Research Committee Funding (Direct Grants)

    Property prices are volatile. For example, between 1982-89, the nominal prices of condominium in Boston rose about 170 percent, before they fell more than 40 percent later. The property prices of Hong Kong have also experienced a drop of 50 percent in 1997. As residential properties constitute probably the largest share of the wealth of many households, significant decreases in property prices as such would greatly reduce the wealth. In particular, some households must first sell their old houses to pay for the down payment of new houses (“liquidity-constrained”). It inevitably reduces the number of houses available for sale and limits the choices for even those who are not liquidity-constrained. As a result, the market becomes “sluggish.”
    This project has several objectives. First, it documents the extent to which property transactions are affected by “the wealth effect” in Hong Kong and the United States. Second, it explains the difference of the two places and provides lessons for policy-making. Third, it builds a dynamic general equilibrium model to study the implications of “the wealth effect” in a property market with imperfect information, and the corresponding policy implications. (SS02389)



  • ‘CUHK’ Hong Kong Quality of Life Index - Economic Sub-Index

  • KWAN Cheuk Chiu, CHAN Ying Keung (Sociology)
    1 May 2006
    CUHK Research Committee Funding (Direct Grants)

    The CUHK Hong Kong Quality of Life Index, which aims to assess and monitor the quality of life in Hong Kong, is a composite index incorporating both objective and subjective measure. This index, developed by the Faculty of Social Science of The Chinese University of Hong Kong, employs data collected in representative sample surveys and official statistics. A wide range of life domains is covered and the year 2002 is taken as the base year of the study. Index scores demonstrate that in general the quality of life in Hong Kong has improved slightly in 2003 and more markedly in 2004. Scores of the composite index and the three sub-indices on sectorial performance are somewhat higher than those of the previous years. It is noteworthy that Hong Kong has made noticeable progress and performs as well as many economically advanced societies in certain life domains. Yet, the well-being of the people relies on further improvement in others. As part of the CUHK Hong Kong Quality of Life Index, the Economic Sub-index consists of indicators measuring the economic conditions of Hong Kong, including housing affordability ratio, rental index, unemployment rate, index of current economic conditions, real wage index, public expenditure on education as a proportion of the GDP and age participation rate for first-degree programmes and postgraduate programmes in local universities. (SS05856)



  • ‘CUHK’ Hong Kong Quality of Life Index – Economic Sub-Index

  • KWAN Cheuk Chiu, CHAN Ying Keung (Sociology)
    1 May 2007
    CUHK Research Committee Funding (Direct Grants)

    The CUHK Hong Kong Quality of Life Index, which aims to assess and monitor the quality of life in Hong Kong, is a composite index incorporating both objective and subjective measure. This index, developed by the Faculty of Social Science of The Chinese University of Hong Kong, employs data collected in representative sample surveys and official statistics. A wide range of life domains is covered and the year 2002 is taken as the base year to the study. Index scores demonstrate that in general the quality of life in Hong Kong has improved slightly in 2003 and more markedly in 2004. Scores of the composite index and the three sub-indices on sectorial performance are somewhat higher than those of the previous years. It is noteworthy that Hong Kong has made noticeable progress and performs as well as many economically advanced societies in certain life domains. Yet, the well-being of the people relies on further improvement in others. As part of the CUHK Hong Kong Quality of Life Index, the Economic Sub-index consists of indicators measuring the economic conditions of Hong Kong, including housing affordability ratio, rental index, unemployment rate, index of current economic conditions, real wage index, public expenditure on education as a proportion of the GDP and age participation rate for first-degree programmes and postgraduate programmes in local universities. (SS06343)



  • Development of Employment Projection Model for Strategic Land Use Planning

  • CHOU Win Lin
    15 August 2004
    Planning Department, HKSAR Government

    The main purpose of this project has four parts: (a ) to explain, through the development of an econometric model for Hong Kong, the key factors behind the growth of the employment in different sectors of the economy; (b) to project long-term future employment in different industry sectors for a period up to 30 years; (c) to produce ling-term forecasts for GDP and its major components for a forizon up to 30 years; and (d) to perform simulation analysis using policy instruments such as population, tourist arrivals, GDP of the Chinese mainland, world trade volume, and government expenditure on infra-structure. (SS04857)



  • Does Hold-Up Lead to Vertical Integration? A Case Study on the Licensing of Amusement Game Centers in Hong Kong

  • NG Ka Ho
    1 January 2008
    CUHK Research Committee Funding (Direct Grants)

    Operating an amusement game center in Hong Kong requires a license, an asset that is extremely site-specific but sometimes very expensive to acquire. Given that rental contracts in Hong Kong typically lasts for 3 years with future rent usually subject to negotiation, the operator does not have much protection on his substantial up-front investment on the license, a typical problem of hold-up. We therefore expect to see operators owning their sites too. Surprisingly, this is not usually the case. It suggests that businesses must employ some ways to mitigate the hold-up problem they face. This project aims at exploring the role of two major elements in solving hold-up: 1) the investing party’s ability to alter the return of its own investment; and 2) the fact that it takes time to realize returns. The license requirement of amusement game centers and their rental contracts therefore present a unique opportunity for conducting the studies. (SS07455)



  • An Economic Analysis of Gender Earnings Gaps in Hong Kong, 1981-2006

  • ZHANG Junsen, LI Hongbin (Centre of Economics and Finance)
    30 September 2006
    Public Policy Research Funding Scheme

    In the past decade there has been an increase in schooling for women in Hong Kong, that has far exceeded that of men. Women have caught up and overtaken men in their secondary educational attainment since the late 1980s, but continue to lag behind in higher educational attainment. In 2003, 19.5 per cent of women aged 15 and over had gained a tertiary education, which is only 3.8 per cent below the figure for men. However, recent empirical studies- show that female workers are still earning less than male workers in Hong Kong. The 2001 Hong Kong Census data reveal that female workers on average earned 23% less than male workers. The stark contrast between the education gap and the earnings gap raises the question of why better educated women are paid less. In an attempt to fill the gap in the literature on gender earnings differentials in Hong Kong, this research proposes to examine gender earnings differentials in terms of observed and unobserved skill differentials and their premiums during 1981-2006, which has been a period of a fast economic structural change in Hong Kong. We will apply three decomposition approaches to study the gender earnings differentials, and in particular will explore whether wage inequality is due to the price effect of unmeasured skills or changes in the composition of the labor force. A better understanding of the male-female earnings gap in Hong Kong may offer useful policy suggestions. (BS06929)



  • Economic Contributions of Hong Kong’s External Trade Sector

  • SUNG Yun Wing, CHOU Win Lin
    1 May 2006
    Hong Kong Trade Development Council

    This study examines the contributions of Hong Kong.s external trade with the following two models:
    1. Input-output model to quantify the direct and indirect contributions of external trade to GDP and employment through the trade sector (direct effects) and also through other supporting industries (indirect effects).
    2. Econometric simulation using the Hong Kong Model of the Project LINK to quantify the multiplier effects of exports on Hong Kong.s GDP, employment, and other variables. (SS05769)



  • Economic Integration and Differential Stock Response: A Study of the Impact of CEPA on Hong Kong Stocks

  • DU Julan
    1 April 2006
    CUHK Research Committee Funding (Direct Grants)

    This project analyzes the differential stock price responses in Hong Kong stock market to a major event of economic integration between the Chinese mainland and Hong Kong . CEPA. We plan to investigate how the variation in mainland business participation level will affect the market expectation of corporate performance following the implementation of CEPA. (SS05397)



  • The Effect of Stock Repurchase on the Profitability of Technical Trading in Hong Kong Stock Market

  • WONG Ka Fu, KONG Tze Shan
    1 March 2001
    CUHK Research Committee Funding (Direct Grants)

    Technical trading rules generate signals of buy and sell from the past price movement. They have aided the trading decisions of practitioners for several decades. Yet, the usefulness of technical trading strategies is still controversial in the academic field. Few of them study the sources of profit induced by the technical trading rules. This issue is important because the profitability of technical trading rule is a piece of evidence against the efficient market hypothesis, which is traditionally believed by the economists. In this paper, the researchers will investigate whether stock repurchase has an effect on the profit of technical trading rules. (BS00883)



  • External Shocks, Public Good Provision, and Tax Reforms: Theory and CGE Assessment for the Hong Kong Economy

  • CHAO Chi Chur, YU Siu Hung*, YU Wusheng*
    1 January 2005
    Research Grants Council (Earmarked Grants)

    Due to the economic downturn since 1997 Asian financial crisis, the property market is no longer a money machine, resulting in structural deficits for the government. The high levels of budget deficits may shake the confidence of the Hong Kong currency, and this may jeopardize the stability of its linked exchange rate system. Therefore, there are calls for budgetary reforms on both the expenditure and revenue sides of the government balance sheet. The objective of this research will be to study the public pay cuts and tax reform of the Hong Kong economy. We investigate the following issues: (1) Can the public pay cuts and hikes in corporate taxes improve the budget situation and raise welfare? If yes, then what would be the jointly optimal pay cut and corporate tax hike? (2) What are the other factors pertinent to revenue generation for the government, e.g., land leases, personal income taxes, or sales taxes? Moreover, the policy packages under political constraints will be investigated. (CU04110)



  • Does a Financial Crisis Change the Demand of Housing Attributes?

  • LEUNG Ka Yui Charles
    1 March 2002
    CUHK Research Committee Funding (Direct Grants)

    After the Asian financial crisis in 1997-8, the real estate market records a sharp drop in prices and in trading volume. To understand the reason behind the decline in housing prices, this project intends to investigate whether the demand for different housing attributes have changed due to the financial crisis (and if so, how). Since .tastes. are not directly observable, we follow the Hedonic Pricing Approach advocated by Rosen (1974) to quantify the demand for different housing attributes. While previous studies typically focus on the demand in a short period of time, this project extends the analysis to a dynamic setting. Our approach enables to exploit the data of the Hong Kong housing market during the period of 1992-99. furthermore, we employ the newly developed statistical tests by Andrews (1993) and Chong (2001) to verify the existence of a structural break in the demand of different attributes. We also examine the interactions between the demand changes with the evolution of the aggregate economy. Clearly, this research will enrich our understanding about how a financial crisis would impact the housing market, especially the pricing and trading of different kinds of housing units, and how these changes might interact with the aggregate economy.
    From a policy point of view, this research will provide guidance on the design of new public housing units, as well as their .pricing.. In Hong Kong, the government supplies public housing units for almost half of the population. The government is also considering to adjust the public housing rental according to the housing attributes and hence an accurate estimation of the .prices. of different attributes is crucially important. (SS01951)



  • GST, the Environment and Welfare for a Tourism Economy: Analysis and Simulations of the Hong Kong Case

  • CHAO Chi Chur, YU Siu Hung Eden*, Jean-Pierre LAFFARGUE*
    1 January 2008
    Research Grants Council (Earmarked Grants)

    The simple tax structure is a distinguishing feature of the Hong Kong economy: zero GST has made Hong Kong a city for tourists, while low corporate taxes have attracted firms to come. In order to raise revenue, the government primarily relied on land sales. However, the 1997 Asian financial crisis has severely impacted the Hong Kong property market and the narrow tax base has posed a serious problem to the government budget. Tax reform for introducing GST has been a highly prioritized item on the agenda of government policy making, with a 5% GST being recently proposed. To neutralize revenue and enhance competitiveness, a 5% tax cut in corporate taxes was suggested.
    The GST policy has nevertheless been subject to intensive debates. Proponents of the tax claim that it meets the objective of equity and is an efficient system. Opponents argue that low-income earners would be the hardest hit because the flat GST acts like a system of regressive taxation. The purpose of this research is to search for the optimal balance between GST and capital taxes under welfare maximization or revenue neutrality for a tourism economy. The consequent impacts on environmental quality and tourism will also be examined. (CU07410)



  • Hong Kong's Economic Integration with the Pearl River Delta: Quantifying the Benefits and Costs

  • SUNG Yun Wing
    28 June 2003
    Central Policy Unit, HKSAR Government

    The project aims to quantify the benefits and costs to Hong Kong (HK) of its economic integration with the Pearl River Delta (PRD) through various markets, the market for goods and services, the capital market, financial markets, the real estate market, and the real estate market, and the labour market. The benefits to HK in terms of income and employment generated by HK’s exports of goods and services to the PRD will be quantified. HK’s investment earnings in the PRD will be studied. The costs to HK of specialization in terms of structural unemployment and export instability (if any) will be examined. Interactions in the real estate, labour, and financial markets will also be assessed. (SS02304)



  • The Impact of Twinning on Educational Attainment

  • YUNG Chor Wing Linda, ZHANG Junsen
    1 March 2001
    CUHK Research Committee Funding (Direct Grants)

    This project proposes to investigate whether twins have a special impact in determining their educational attainment. In order to do so, the first objective of this study is to identify the twins (including identical or fraternal twins) who are recorded in the Chinese census data. The procedure adopted in this project for the identification of these twins from census data will be the method introduced by Bronars and Grogger in 1994. The rest of the individuals (non-twins) in the census will then serve as a comparison group. The second objective of this study is to test whether these identified twins in this project have attained significantly different levels of education than the non-twins.
    The finding from this study should add to our understanding on the response of the Chinese parents towards twins. Upon the completion of this present proposed study, similar analysis can be used on Chinese twins in Hong Kong or Singapore (where Chinese are a majority), as well as to other countries such as Australia, Canada, and the US (where Chinese are not a majority). Comparison of these results should provide a better understanding of the impact of twins on educational attainment in different cultural background. Besides applying to different countries, the methodology can also be applied to future studies on other issues of interests on twins. Some of these interesting issues include possible relationship between education and earnings, and twins' effect on mother's or father's labor supply. (SS00569)



  • Institutions and Economic Performance: Time-Series Evidence from Hong Kong

  • YUNG Chor Wing Linda, TANG Sammy Hak Kan
    1 February 2004
    CUHK Research Committee Funding (Direct Grants)

    The proposed study investigates the impact of institutional changes which have been taking place since 1997 on the economic performance of Hong Kong Special Administration Region (SAR). We propose to test the hypothesis that changes in institutional arrangements since 1997 have had a significant impact on economic performance of the SAR has enjoyed a high degree of autonomy. However, its sovereignty resides with the non-democratic institutions ultimately chosen by China’s central government in Beijing. We argue that this institutional arrangement has adversely affected democratic accountability in the SAR, leading to implementation of policies which have damaged the traditional market-oriented, lassiez faire economy of Hong Kong.
    The proposed study is the first that uses current sophisticated time-series econometric methods to study Hong Kong’s economic performance in a background of rapid institutional changes. More specifically, it has three long-term significances. First, it contributes to the academic literature of institutions and economic growth by analyzing Hong Kong’s unique experiment of a rapid but peaceful changeover of institutions which we rarely see in the world. Second, the results of the proposed study will be of special interest to policy-makers in setting the pace and form of democratization in Hong Kong, which is under intense debate currently. Third, the results of the proposed study will be useful to business sector for making investment planning. If current democratic accountability can be used as a signal of subsequent economic prosperity of Hong King, business sector will have a reliable tool to forecast the up- and downsides of their potential investment. (SS03861)



  • International Capital Mobility and Pollution Tax Coordination

  • CHAO Chi Chur
    1 April 2002
    CUHK Research Committee Funding (Direct Grants)

    As the world economy becomes more and more interdependent, the importance of coordination in the design and implementation of various economic policies among nations has gained increasing recognition. Coordination of pollution taxes between countries is one of them. Recognizing the detrimental effects of global warming and acid rain, pollution is an emerging issue with global ramification and concerns. The objective of this proposed research is to conduct a detailed examination of the effects of various pollution policies on international capital movements and national welfare. Furthermore, the theoretically deduced implications will be empirically tested. Specifically, a series of simulations will be carried out to ascertain the impacts of .shocks. arising from a gradual change in environmental policies on a small open economy. The key issues to be studied include an examination of the coordination of pollution policies among nations. In addition, optimal pollution policies will be deduced. An expected research outcome is that if there is a large disparity between the initial tax rates, the harmonization of pollution taxes may lead to a large welfare improvement for the participating nations. This welfare implication is highly relevant for Hong Kong and China in designing the environmental policies. (SS01685)



  • An Investigation of Exchange Rate Volatility and Persistence

  • ZENG Zhixiong
    1 January 2004
    CUHK Research Committee Funding (Direct Grants)

    A central puzzle in open-economy macroeconomics and international finance is that fluctuations in nominal and real exchange rates are highly volatile and persistent. Developing a theory that is capable of explaining these facts is important because policy evaluations can only be conducted using models that are able to reproduce key features of reality. The most popular modeling strategy in the literature has been centered around the interaction between monetary shocks and price stickiness. While recognizing the importance of these elements, this project proposes to offer a broader perspective on this subject by modeling frictions in domestic and international goods markets and asset markets in depth, and by incorporating various sources of disturbances. Quantitative dynamic stochastic general equilibrium models will be constructed to address three issues. First, what accounts for the observed exchange rate volatility and persistence? Second, how do monetary and fiscal policies affect exchange rates, terms of trade, domestic and foreign interest rates, and other variables? Third, what is the best policy response when there are shocks to a country’s external economic conditions? Answering these questions are important not only to countries adopting flexible exchange rate arrangements, but also to economies with pegged exchange rate systems such as contemporary Hong Kong. (SS03403)



  • Monetary Policy and Economic Stability in Open Economies

  • MENG Qinglai
    1 March 2001
    CUHK Research Committee Funding (Direct Grants)

    impact on the economic theory and policy issues for the last century. The significance of Keynesian theory is that government should have a large role to play in managing the macro-economy. Most major governments subsequently have utilized his theory as a useful guidance in handling the economies. Studying Keynesian theory is nowadays still a must for students of economics.
    There are, however, some problems involved with Keynesian theory. First, the theory itself assumes at the onset that price level is rigid in the short run so that government monetary or fiscal policy may affect the economy by effectively influencing the demand side. Subsequent research work has tried to explain in theory why price level is sticky in the short run (i.e., why the prices for most commodities do not vary considerably within not a long time). This body of work has been termed as "New Keynesian Models".
    Another problem with Keynesian original work is that in his model the economy is assumed to be closed, and that there is no international trade and capital mobility. Mundel and others later extended his work to open economies, and obtained invaluable insights. This extension is important because most economies in the world are essentially open ones. Studying in theory how government can do to improve the performance of the open economy system is both theoretically and practically necessary. There has been work that uses New Keynesian Theory in open economies, and in particular to study the implication of government monetary and fiscal polices in such an environment. The major work in this literature is summarized in Obstfeld and Rogoff (1996). This body of work is relatively new, and still has a lot of work to do. One interesting issue is what kind of monetary policies can stabilize or destabilize the economy. In view of what has happened and is happening in real world economies (recent Asian financial crisis is but one example), such an undertaking is practically very important. The researcher hopes to investigate in this area and obtain results useful in real world open economies like Hong Kong. (SS00521)



  • A Socioeconomic Analysis of Lowest Low-Fertility in Hong Kong: Causes and Policy

  • ZHANG Junsen, LI Hongbin, SUEN Wing Chuen#
    1 April 2006
    CUHK Research Committee Funding (Direct Grants)

    Hong Kong.s fertility has dropped to an alarmingly low level, perhaps the lowest in the world. In 2003, the total fertility rate (TFR) was only 0.94, well below the replacement level. A good understanding of the underlying causes of the lowest-low fertility is a necessary condition for taking effective policy remedies. This research is composed of two parts. The first part is a time series analysis of the aggregate fertility rate, which is complemented by a cross-sectional analysis of microdata in the second part. The analysis of aggregate fertility rates in this part serves to investigate how the aggregate fertility rate is affected by other macroeconomic variables such as GDP per capita, the female labour force participation rates, the housing price index, crude divorce rate, etc. The analysis of microdata is used to identity those variables on which individual fertility decisions are based at the level of the household and examine to what degree and in what way such decisions are influenced by social and economic factors. The micro analysis of fertility will be based on data from the Hong Kong Censuses from 1981 to 2001, as well as other available data from Hong Kong and possibly Mainland China. A study of the extremely low fertility in Hong Kong may generate new academic insights on birth behaviour and offer useful policy suggestions. (SS05341)



  • A Study on the Harberger-Laursen-Metzler Effect under Imperfect Capital Market

  • MENG Qinglai
    1 July 2005
    CUHK Research Committee Funding (Direct Grants)

    There has been a large literature in the past two decades that studies the Harbenger-Larusen-Metzler effect, which is useful for us to understand the economic dynamics of small open economies like Hong Kong. This project examines the effects of a permanent terms-of-trade change on a dynamic small open economy facing an imperfect world capital market. We assume that the economy faces a downward-sloping bond curve. In this project, we propose that households. subjective discount rate is a decreasing function of instantaneous utility. This is a novel assumption and is in contrast to those found existing research. We study whether the Harberger-Larusen-Metzler effect can hold unambiguously, that is, an unanticipated permanent terms-of-trade deterioration can lead to an increase in aggregate expenditure and a current account deficit. (SS05951)



  • Tourism, Economic Development and Welfare: Theory and Simulations for the Hong Kong Economy

  • CHAO Chi Chur, YU Siu Hung Eden*, Bharat R. HAZARI*, Jean-Pierre LAFFARGUE*, Pasquale M. SGRO*
    1 January 2006
    Research Grants Council (Earmarked Grants)

    The 1997 Asian financial crisis brought recession to Hong Kong. A turning point for the economy came in April 2003 when the scheme to allow mainland Chinese travelers to visit Hong Kong individually was announced. This research project will examine the effects of an expansion in tourism on an open economy. A tourist boom tends to raise demand for, and hence the prices of, non-traded goods, that is, it improves of the secondary terms if trade and expands production of the non-traded goods at the expense of the traded sectors. An important question is whether a tourism-led expansion in the non-traded sector would increase employment and hence welfare in the long run. We will analyze these problems based on dynamic general-equilibrium models with a special emphasis on capital accumulation and employment. We will also investigate the optimal policy for attracting tourists and the optimal level of tourism of the economy. (CU05603)



  • On the Usefulness of the Purchasing Managers’ Index in Forecasting Future Economic Activity

  • KWAN Cheuk Chiu
    1 March 2006
    CUHK Research Committee Funding (Direct Grants)

    Despite the widespread use of surveys of business confidence among economists and policy makers, studies investigating the predictive capability of business confidence as regards changes in future economic activity have just started to emerge in the last decade. Santero and Westerlund (1996), for example, find that using data from 11 OECD countries business sentiment is generally a solid predictor of industrial production and business investment. Very recently, Hansson, Jansson and Lof (2005) show that utilizing a dynamic factor model data from business tendency surveys are found to be useful for predicting Sweden.s GDP growth in the short run.
    This research will attempt to contribute to the current debate on the usefulness of business confidence in forecasting future economic activity. To this end, I will employ the Survey of Purchasing Managers (SPM) conducted by the NTC Research Institute. The SPM differs from many oft-cited business surveys in one important aspect; it measures purchasing managers. confidence while conventional business surveys focus on business executives. perceptions of future economic trend. To my knowledge, this study represents the first attempt in the literature to assess the ability of the SPM to predict near-term movements in economic activity. The outcome of this research will serve two purposes. First, the empirical results of this research will shed more light on the ability of business confidence to forecast near-term changes in economic activity. Second, since a case study using Hong Kong data will be conducted, both the policy makers of the Hong Kong government and the local business sector will find the results of this research project relevant for their economic analyses and planning. (SS05331)



  • Volatility and Dynamics of Property Prices

  • LEUNG Ka Yui Charles, KAN Kamhon*, KWONG Kai Sun Sunny, TSE Chung Yi*
    1 September 2000
    Research Grants Council (Earmarked Grants)

    Property Prices are well known for their unusual volatility and atypical dynamic adjustment. For instance, from the peak of 1997, the property prices in Hong Kong and Thailand have experienced a drop of 50%, far larger than the drop in income. As residential properties constitute probably the largest share of the wealth of many households, any significant adjustment in property prices translates into significant adjustment in their physical wealth. In fact, many cases of "negative wealth" (the value of unpaid debt exceeding the value of the housing unit) have been reported in Hong Kong since 1998. Since many households are highly leveraged, with their purchases being financed through banks, a significant drop in housing price also poses a threat of largescale loan default and bank failures.
    The theme of the present project centers around the volatility of housing prices. The principal objectives are, first, to document the volatility of commercial and residential property prices. Second, to build a dynamic general equilibrium model to study the causes of excessive volatility of housing prices. Third, in comparing volatility between commercial and residential housing prices, it is commonly observed that commercial housing prices are far more volatile than residential housing prices. The researchers attempt to establish statistical evidence in this regard, and use their model to study the underlying reasons. Finally, they attempt to study if mortgage financing is a cause of high price volatility and whether there is any connection between such fluctuations and business cycles. (CU00329)



  • Welfare Impact of Changing Housing Policy in Hong Kong

  • YAN Wai Hin, LEUNG Ka Yui Charles
    1 March 2002
    CUHK Research Committee Funding (Direct Grants)

    This project aims to study the welfare and efficiency change of Hong Kong.s public sector housing programmes. Although the objectives and the means of Hong Kong.s public housing strategy have become more complex in the past several decades, the public rental housing programme is still the main vehicle for distributing housing resources. In the analysis, the representative household is assumed to have a Cobb-Douglas utility function. The efficiency loss of the public rental housing programme is the theoretical discrepancy between the net benefit received by and the gross subsidy offered to the public tenant. It arises from a distortion in the housing consumption pattern of the tenant. Using data from population censuses and by-censuses 1976 to 2001, we estimate and compare the monetary benefits and subsidies of public housing tenants in different years. Estimated permanent income has been used instead of reported income as one variable to determine tenure status. Appropriate measures are employed for correcting the selection bias in the estimation because our household samples are not randomly selected from all population.
    We then analyze the impact of various housing policies on the distribution of the benefit, subsidy and hence efficiency ratio of the programme among different income groups. Our empirical results indicate that the welfare gains or efficiency losses of the public housing programme over a quarter of century. It also attempts to provide a justification of government role in the property market. (SS01472)



  • Why Have Women Caught up with Men in Educational Attainment but Still Fall behind in Earnings? An Economic Analysis of Gender Gaps in Hong Kong from 1981 to 2006

  • ZHANG Junsen
    1 December 2005
    CUHK Research Committee Funding (Direct Grants)

    In recent years, Hong Kong women have fared rather well in education. However, recent empirical studies show that female workers are still earning less than male workers in Hong Kong. The stark contrast of the education gap with the earnings gap raises a puzzle: Why are the better educated women paid less? The prior literature on gender earnings differential in the Hong Kong labor market may not help to solve the puzzle, because none have addressed the issue of how unobserved skills affect the gender earnings gap. The reversal education gap suggests that unobservable skills and their returns play a critical role in the male-female earnings gap, which deserves a better study.
    This research proposes to examine gender earnings differentials in terms of observed and unobserved skill differentials and their premiums during 1981-2006, a period of a fast economic structural change in Hong Kong. Controlling for observable skill determinants, we will apply an approach proposed by John, Murphy and Pierce (1991, 1993) to analyze the changes in the residual earnings differentials that are considered to be the changes in unmeasured skill prices and quantities over time. The research results more provide a basis for the government to design better gender policies to reduce the gender gap. (SS05308)



  • 收入基準支付計劃之研究 (Study on Income-based Contributory Scheme)

  • CHOU Win Lin
    18 January 2007
    Health, Welfare and Food Bureau

    Medical and health service is an important sector of the Hong Kong economy. In 2005, Hong Kong spent about HK$62.4 billion or 4.5% of GDP on health care. This amount looks conservative when compared to the OECD mean 2004 health care spending level of 8.9% of GDP, but is more than the 2005 spending level of 3.8% of GDP in Singapore. Total government spending on health grew at a rapid rate of 14.2% in real terms for the period 1990-2005. Its share in GDP rose rapidly from 0.4% in 1990 to 2.0% in 2005. However, the corresponding share of private consumption expenditure on health care fluctuated in a narrow range of 2.2% and 2.6% over the same period, suggesting more and more health care consumed in Hong Kong is financed by government. This development has motivated the health, Welfare and Food (HWFB) to consider alternative health care funding schemes. The income-based contributory scheme (ICS) is one of them. The objective of this project is to investigate the long-and short-term impact of ICS on Hong Kong economy. (SS06631)




Research Publications


  • CHAN Ying Keung. "The Comparison of Labor Force Participation of Married Women and Men in Hong Kong: A Family Life Cycle Perspective" (co-authored with Lau Yuk King; Ma Lai Chong) Paper presented in the Hawaii International Conference on Social Sciences, Hawaii, United States of America, June 2003



  • CHAN Ying Keung. The Development of New Towns in Hong Kong. Hong Kong: Social Research Centre, Chinese University of Hong Kong, 1977.
    (CUHK Library Call No: UL H62.5H6H6 no.67; UL HK Studies H62.5H6H6 no.67)



  • CHAN Ying Keung. "Division of Labour in Hong Kong Families: Reflections and Challenges for Social Work." (co-authored with 劉玉瓊 and 馬麗莊) Journal of Social Work Practice and Evaluation (Hong Kong: China) vol.2 no.7 (2003), pp. 3-29
    (CUHK Library Call No: UL HK Studies HV416 .S53)



  • CHAN Ying Keung. The Growth Pattern of Organizations in Kwun Tong. Hong Kong: Social Research Center, Chinese University of Hong Kong, 1972.
    (CUHK Library Call No: UL H62.5H6H6 no.9; UL HK Studies H62.5H6H6 no.9)



  • CHAN Ying Keung. "Hong Kong residents working in Mainland China: Work-related separation and family-friendly employment policies."(co-authored with Lau Yuk King; Ma Lai Chong; and He Li Ping) International Employment Relations Review (Australia: International Employment Relations Assocation) vol.12 no.2 (2006), pp.78-90
    (CUHK Library Call No: electronic resource ISSN:1324-1125)



  • CHAN Ying Keung. Housing policy and internal movement of population : a study of Kwun Tong, a Chinese new town in Hong Kong. (co-authored with C.Y. Choi) Hong Kong: Social Research Centre, Chinese University of Hong Kong, 1977.
    (CUHK Library Call No: UL H62.5H6H6 no.58; UL HK Studies H62.5H6H6 no.58)



  • CHAN Ying Keung. "Labor Force Participation of Married Women in Hong Kong: A Feminist Perspective." (co-authored with Lau Yuk King; Ma Lai Chong) Journal of Comparative Family Studies (Calgary, Canada) vol.37 no.1 (2006), pp.93-112
    (CUHK Library Call No: UL Thesis HD6055.2.H6W66)



  • CHAN Ying Keung. Life Satisfaction in Crowded Urban Environment. Hong Kong: Social Research Centre, Chinese University of Hong Kong, 1978.
    (CUHK Library Call No: UL H62.5H6H6 no.75; UL HK Studies H62.5H6H6 no.75)



  • CHAN Ying Keung. Mass Mobilization for Development: Water Conservancy in China. Hong Kong: Social Research Centre, Chinese University of Hong Kong, 1979.
    (CUHK Library Call No: UL H62.5H6H6 no.83; UL HK Studies H62.5H6H6 no.83)



  • CHAN Ying Keung. A Practical guide to sample surveys. Hong Kong: Hong Kong Statistical Society, 1991.
    (CUHK Library Call No: UL Reserve HA31.2.P72 1991; UL HK Studies HA31.2.P72 1991)



  • CHAN Ying Keung. Public housing development and population movement: a study of Kwun Tong, Hong Kong. (co-authored with C.Y. Choi) Hong Kong: Social Research Centre, Chinese University of Hong Kong, 1978.
    (CUHK Library Call No: UL H62.5.H6 H6 no.72; UL HK Studies H62.5.H6 H6 no.72)



  • CHAN Ying Keung. Quality-of-life Research in Chinese, Western and Global Contexts. (co-edited with Daniel T.L. Shek and Paul S.N. Lee) Dordrecht: Springer, 2005.
    (CUHK Library Call No: UL HK Studies WA30 .Q45 2005; UC General Education WA30 .Q45 2005)



  • CHAN Ying Keung. "A resilience perspective on family adjustment to cross-border work arrangements of Hong Kong residents." China Journal of Social Work vol.1 no.3 (2008), pp.208-220



  • CHAN Ying Keung. The Rise and Growth of Kwun Tong: A Study of Planned Urban Development. Hong Kong: Social Research Centre, Chinese University of Hong Kong, 1973.
    (CUHK Library Call No: UL H62.5H6H6 no.26; UL HK Studies H62.5H6H6 no.26)



  • CHAN Ying Keung. Sampling in the Kwun Tong Industrial Community Research Programme. Hong Kong: Social Research Center, Chinese University of Hong Kong, 1972.
    (CUHK Library Call No: UL H62.5H6H6 no.2; UL HK Studies H62.5H6H6 no.2)



  • CHAN Ying Keung. The Spatial Distribution of Organizations in Kwun Tong. Hong Kong: Social Research Center, Chinese University of Hong Kong, 1972.
    (CUHK Library Call No: UL H62.5H6H6 no.10; UL HK Studies H62.5H6H6 no.10)



  • CHAN Ying Keung. A Study of the Role of Religious Organizations in the Kwun Tong Community. (co-authored with S. Joan Delaney) Hong Kong: Social Research Centre, Chinese University of Hong Kong, 1973.
    (CUHK Library Call No: UL H62.5.H6H6 no.24; UL HK Studies H62.5.H6H6 no.24)



  • CHAN Ying Keung. “Supporting Hong Kong families with parents working in the Mainland.” (co-authored with Lau Yuk King; Ma Lai Chong Joyce; and He Li Ping) Symposium on "family and family interventions across different cultures, Hong Kong, May 2007



  • CHAN Ying Keung. A Theoretical and Operational Definition of Community: The Case of Kwun Tong. (co-authored with Ambrose Yeo-chi King) Hong Kong: Chinese University of Hong Kong, 1972.
    (CUHK Library Call No: UL H62.5.H6H6 no.1; UL HK Studies H62.5.H6H6 no.1)



  • CHONG Tai Leung and DU Xin. "Do the Chinese have a Preference for the Number "8": A Hedonic Pricing Model for the Vehicle Registration Marks in Hong Kong". Working Paper Series Department of Economics, The Chinese University of Hong Kong. no.162 Hong Kong SAR, 2004.08.



  • CHONG Tai Leung and LOK Lily. "The Impact of the 1997 Handover on the Efficiency of the Hong Kong Stock Market". Singapore Economic Review vol.52 no.1, pp.27-38. Singapore: World Scientific, 2007.04.01.



  • CHONG Tai Leung; SU Qian and YAN Isabel Kit-ming. "On the Convergence of the Chinese and Hong Kong Stock Markets: A Cointegration Analysis of the A and H Shares". Applied Financial Economics vol.17 no.16, pp.1349-1357. United Kingdom: Taylor and Francis Group, 2007.12.01.



  • CHONG Tai Leung; WONG Wai Hong and LIEW Venus. "Value Creation and Long Term Performance of Hong Kong Spinoffs". Working Paper Series Department of Economics. no.165 Hong Kong SAR, 2004.11.



  • CHOU Win Lin and WONG Kar-Yiu. "Economic Growth and International Trade: The Case of Hong Kong". Pacific Economic Review vol.6 no.3, pp.313-329. UK, 2001.



  • CHOU Win Lin and WONG Kar-Yiu. "Economic Growth and International Trade: The Case of Hong Kong". Pacific Economic Review vol.6, pp.313-329. Oxford, UK: Blackwell Publishers Limited, 2001.10.



  • CHOU Win Lin. "Assessment of the Economic Impacts of China's WTO Entry on Hong Kong". The World Economy vol.25 no.8, pp.1129-1144. Oxford, United Kingdom: Blackwell Publishing, 2002.08.



  • CHOU Win Lin. "The Role of External Variables in Hong Kong Economy: Simulations from a Macroeconometric Model with Rational Expectations Variables". Conference Proceedings on Economic Development in Memory of Professor Mo-huan Hsing 胡勝正、傳祖壇編. pp.139-164. Taipei, Taiwan: Institute of Economic, Academia Sinica, 2001.10.



  • FUNG Kit Bing Teresa. "Book Review: Jao, Y.C. (2001), The Asian Financial Crisis and the Ordeal of Hong Kong, Quorum Books.". Pacific Economic Review Blackwell, 2002.



  • FUNG Kit Bing Teresa. "Hong Kong, China: Recent Trends, Prospects and Policy Issues".Asian Development Outlook Asian Development Bank, 2001.04.



  • KWONG Kai Sun Sunny. "Hong Kong's Telecommunication Deregulation Since 1995 in Light of International Experiences". Journal of Network Industries vol.4 no.2, Belgium: Intersentia, 2003.06. pp.157-188.



  • KWONG Kai Sun Sunny. "Value Strategy and Investor Expectation Errors -- An Empirical Analysis of Hong Kong Stocks". Paper presented in the East Asian Economic Association Conference 2002, 2002.11.



  • LAW Wai Ling; LEUNG Ka Yui Charles and CHOW Ying Foon. "Company Investors versus Individual Investors in the Hong Kong Property Market". International Congress onModelling and Simulation ed. by David A. Post. 2003.07. pp.1317–1322.



  • LEUNG Ka Yui Charles and Kelvin S. Wong. "The construction and related industries in a changing socio-economic environment: the case of Hong Kong". International Real estate review vol.7. 2004. pp.139-176.



  • LI Shu C; ONG Sien C; LIM Seng G; YEOH Khay G; KWONG Kai Sun Sunny; LEE Wing Yan Vivian; LEE Winnie; LAU Joseph; WONG Ian; KUNG Nelson; LEUNG Wai Tong Thomas; CHAN H.L.Y.; CHAN Ka Leung Francis; SUNG Joseph Jao Yiu and LEE Kwing Chin Kenneth. "A cost comparison of management of chronic hepatitis B and its associated complications in Hong Kong and Singapore". Journal of Clinical Gastroenterology vol.38 no.10 Suppl, 2004. pp.S136-43.



  • LIANG T.、 TAO S.、 JIA B. Z.、林健枝及王保. “Studies on Toxicity characteristics and factors in sediment and pore water of rivers in Hong Kong”. Acta Scientiae Circumstantiae, vol 5 No.1, Beijing, 2001, p.557-562.



  • SUNG Yun Wing. "Hong Kong Economy in Crisis". The First Tung Chee-hwa Administration: The First Five Years of the Hong Kong Speical Administrative Region ed. by Lau Siu Kai. Hong Kong: Chinese University Press, 2002. pp.123-138.



  • SUNG Yun Wing. "Hong Kong's Economic Integration with the Pearl River Delta: Quantifying the Benefits and Costs". study commissioned by the Central Policy Unit of the HKSAR government. Hong Kong, 2004.



  • SUNG Yun Wing. "The Evolving role of Hong Kong as China's Middleman". China, Hong Kong and the World Economy ed. by Lok Sang Ho and Robert Ash. Basingstoke & New York: Palgrave, 2006. pp.152-169.



  • SUNG Yun Wing. "The Hong Kong Economy and its Financial Sector". The First Decade: Hong Kong SAR in Introspective and Retrospective Perspectives ed. by Yeung Yue-man. Hong Kong: The Chinese University Press, 2007. pp.215-233.



  • SUNG Yun Wing. "The Roles of Hong Kong and Taiwan in the Economic Development of the Chinese Mainland". Paper presented in the Conference on China's Development in the 21st Century, organized by Hong Kong Institute of Economics & Business Strategy, CUHK. Hong Kong, 2002.07.



  • SUNG Yun Wing. “Hong Kong”. The Oxford Encyclopedia of Economic Hsory ed. by Mokyr Joel. Vol 2. Oxford, USA: Oxford Univeristy Press, 2003. pp.532-534.



  • SUNG Yun Wing. The Emergence of Greater China: The Economic Integration of Mainland China, Taiwan, and Hong Kong . New York, USA: Palgrave MacMillian, 2005.



  • SUNG Yun-Wing; ZHANG Junsen and CHAN Chi-sing. "Gender Wage Differentials and Occupational Segregation in Hong Kong 1981-1996". Pacific Economic Review vol.6 no.3, 2001.10. pp.345-359.



  • SUNG Yun-Wing. "Hong Kong and Shanghai as Hubs of Transportation and Trade". Paper presented in the Conference Logistics Hubs and Outsourcing Centres: The New Functions of Asian Port Cities, organized by French Centre for Research on Contemporary China. Hong Kong, 2001.11.24.



  • SUNG Yun-Wing. "Hong Kong: Middleman in Sino-US Trade and Investment". Paper presented in the 4th International Conference on Sino-American Economic Relations Under the WTO, organized by Lingnan University. 14 pgs. Hong Kong, 2002.05.06.



  • SUNG Yun-Wing. "Redefining Hong Kong’s Strategy of Growth and Development". New Challenges for Development and Modernization: Hong Kong and the Asia-Pacific Region in the New Millennium ed. by YEUNG Yue-man. pp.75-100. Hong Kong, 2002.



  • SUNG Yun-Wing. "The Impact of China’s WTO Entry on Shanghai and Hong Kong as Service Hubs". Paper presented for the Conference on Development of the Chinese Economic Circle after WTO Accession, organized by Shanghai-Hong Kong Development Institute in Hong Kong. vol.26, 26 pgs. Hong Kong, 2001.12.26.



  • SUNG Yun Wing; ZHANG Junsen and CHAN Chi-Shing. "Gender Wage Differentials and Occupational Segregation in Hong Kong, 1981-1996". Pacific Economic Review vol.6 no.3, pp.345-359. Blackwell Publishers Limited, 2001.10.



  • YI JUNJIAN and ZHANG Junsen. " Economic Growth, House Price Inflation and Secular Decline Trend of Fertility in Hong Kong". 第六屆中國經濟學年會. Wuhan, China, 2006.12.15.



  • 宋恩榮及梁嘉銳:《中港經濟熱點》,香港:明報出版社,2006。



  • 宋恩榮:〈中國入世對上海和香港作為服務業中心的影響〉,《入世後中華經濟圈的機遇與挑戰》,段樵、陸德明、楊汝萬編,香港特別行政區:滬港發展聯合研究所及香港中文大學香港亞太研究所,2002,頁57-92。



  • 宋恩榮:〈中國兩岸三地的貿易和投資:趨勢和前景〉,《制度競爭與中國國際分工地位》,張幼文與黃仁偉編,上海:上海遠東出版社,2003,頁254-296。



  • 宋恩榮:《內地與香港更緊密的經貿關係安排》,Occasional Paper No. 135. Hong Kong: 香港亞太研究所, 2003.04。



  • 宋恩榮:〈回歸十年香港經濟的檢討〉,龍安山:《滬港經濟發展報告2007》,香港:香港文出版社,2007,頁63-66。



  • 宋恩榮:〈兩岸三通對香港經濟的影響〉,論文發表於「兩岸加入世貿組織後兩岸港澳經貿關系之變化」研討會,主辦單位為香港嶺南大學人文社會科學研究所亞洲太平洋研究所,香港,2001.11.24。



  • 宋恩榮:〈香港在21世紀中介角色的展望〉,《香港移交五周年情勢與兩岸三地關係》,台北:中華港澳之友協會,2002.09.29。



  • 宋恩榮:〈香港與內地經濟整合常見的謬誤分析〉,《經濟前沿》 第140期,廣州: 暨南大學,2003.03,頁38-40。
* Name of external researcher
# Name of staff who has left the University